'Sweary Labour folk' blame Ulez for Uxbridge shock, but Tories are still 'heading for drubbing.
Following their stunning victories in the by-elections yesterday, the Conservatives, Labour, and Liberal Democrats are all stressing the advantages they have gained.
In Selby and Ainsty, Labour defeated the Conservatives by 20,137 votes, and the Liberal Democrats won the seat of Somerton and Frome by 11,008 votes.
Despite these crushing losses for the Conservatives, the BBC said, "the blow is softened a little by the surprise result in former PM Boris Johnson's old seat." The Tories narrowly retained Uxbridge and South Ruislip with a margin of 495 votes, a much smaller number.
According to trusted sources, Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak will "try to persuade their parties that the results give cause for optimism." What are the primary conclusions, though?
1.Tories still have problems.
According to polling expert John Curtice, the Uxbridge result may "raise questions about the potential fragility of support for Labour more broadly." However, Labour's victory in Selby demonstrates that the Conservatives still have a long way to go if they hope to win the next general election.
According to pollster James Johnson, "Selby is arguably the most informative result of the night when we think about how things might develop in a general election," Politico's London Playbook said.
According to last night's results, the Conservatives are "heading for an almighty drubbing," Stephen Daisley of The Spectator said. The next step is to fill as many seats as possible, he continued. “Based on their performance last night, they have a lot of work ahead of them.”
2. However, Sunak has "slim hope."
The PM will think he still has a "path to victory" or "at least to avoid humiliation" despite the fact that "it would be wrong to say that it was anything but a terrible night" for Sunak, according to ITV's Robert Peston.
The outcome in Uxbridge "reinforces his conviction that the gap with Labour would narrow if only he could convince voters they would be financially better off sticking with the Tories," continued Peston.
Sunak "may have spotted a shaft of sunlight breaking through the gun-metal gray that was previously threatening to engulf him," former UKIP MEP Patrick O'Flynn wrote in The Spectator.
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3. Ulez poses a risk to labor.
The development of the ultra-low emissions zone (Ulez) in the capital under Labour Mayor Sadiq Khan is responsible for Labour's loss in Uxbridge. The winning Tory, Steve Tuckwell, claimed that the mayor "has lost Labour this election."
According to London Playbook, "gleeful Tories" and "sweary Labour folk" are "dumping the blame" on Khan and the zone's extension. An official Labour statement acknowledged that Ulez had been a "concern" for voters, but a Labour aide said in the email that Sadiq "arrogantly cared more about his book launch than the party."
According to Sky News, the public views the Ulez expansion, which is scheduled to take effect at the end of August, as a "Labour-imposed tax on those suffering most from the cost of living crisis." The subject is now anticipated to take center stage in the London mayoral race in May.
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4. Living expenses predominate.
According to Paul Waugh, the leading political pundit for the I news website, economic anxiety played a significant role in voters' decisions. It would likely play an essential role in the next general election.
According to Waugh, "it's the cost of living, stupid," the Uxbridge result is "actually united with the Somerton and Selby results by a common factor." While the economic situation in west London influenced voters to reject the idea of Ulez charges, "feedback on the doorsteps" in the West Country and Yorkshire seats revealed that "mortgage misery" and "soaring food and energy bills" were the main issues.
5. Liberal Democrats are 'cock-a-hoop'
The winning Liberal Democrat in Somerset, Sarah Dyke, declared that the result "shows once and for all that the Liberal Democrats are back in the West Country." According to London Playbook, Lib Dem "spinners" are "boasting" that there are 15 seats in the area with smaller Tory majorities over Lib Dems than there were in Somerton and Frome.
According to Peston, the Lib Dems have "definitely and significantly returned as the significant third force in English politics" and are "rampant in the West Country again."
However, the Green Party staked a claim to be the new third force in British politics after finishing third in all three by-elections. The only party to grow its vote percentage in all three elections was ours, according to Adrian Ramsay, the Green co-leader.